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STACK IT UP

Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.

Team stacks seeing the most leverage: Twins, Astros

The Minnesota Twins’ team stack looks to end up at the top of the leverage board ahead of their matchup against Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers. Minnesota hasn’t been the most productive team at the plate lately, ranking in the bottom ten in wOBA and wRC+ over the past two weeks, compared to being in the top six in both for the entirety of the season. They still have ranked on the outside of the top ten in ISO over the past two weeks while being in the top nine in Barrel% and HardHit% at the same time, so it feels safe to expect a turnaround for this offense.

Skubal has had an excellent season for the Tigers and proved he could be a piece to build around in the future in Detroit. His xERA and xFIP hover in the low-3.00 range, with decent strikeout production at roughly 25%. He corrected the power issues that plagued him last year to a top 15 placement in allowed HR/9. The Twins’ stack looks to be underpriced at below an average of roughly $3,800 on DraftKings, which makes the leverage we are seeing a little more enticing. Skubal is no pushover, but the Twins have proved throughout the year that they have a high offensive upside, and are currently due for a breakout, so taking a chance on them would be a low-risk, high-reward move.

The Houston Astros look to be near the top of the team stack leverage board ahead against a struggling Nathan Eovaldi and the rest of the Boston Red Sox. No pitcher is happier to see the calendar, say August 1, as he had an 11.00+ ERA over three starts in July. Today will be Houston’s second time facing Eovaldi, and in the first round, Houston dropped six runs on him in less than two innings. That included five home runs, illustrating why Eovaldi has one of the worst allowed HR/9 in baseball. 

Houston had a strong July, ranking in the top five in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while striking out at a sub-20% clip. This stack looks reasonably priced compared to what we typically see with this squad, but the computer seems to be giving Eovaldi more credit than he may deserve. Grabbing the available leverage with this stack is a smart play to make.